Lancair Live!

Since about mid December 2022, I've needed a deice system 80% of the time I flew or wanted to fly. Yesterday and tomorrow, in MAY, when I wanted to/want to fly from the west coast to the Sierra foothills, there is severe icing forecast 500 feet above the MEA on what would likely to be an instrument flight (or scud running) from Monterey to the foothills (CPR). See attached pics.

Ice ice ice, and more ice.

I've been looking into thermawing, which is certfied on the Columbia/Cessna series 300, 350, and 400 that evolved from the ES. According to someone from Kelly Aerospace, which developed the original system, there are roughly 100 Columbia/Cessna series airplanes out there with the certified systems. I understand there were growing pains with the early systems and some AD was issued, but the system was improved. I understand from a handful of folks that have spoken about it that it works as advertised. It's not that complicated!

Problem: Kelly Aerospace is getting out of/has gotten out of providing new systems. They say they are supporting the existing fleet, but their business is now mostly air conditioning. They told me that they are now out of controllers and that it is a minimum of 6 months to get more of them. That's into next winter as this winter ends!. The fact that it takes 6 months to get controllers for this system is all the information one needs to draw conclusions about the economic motivation of vendors to push the system -- they simply are not doing it, likely because there is not enough money in it to make it worthwhile.

This system is not that complicated. The heating elements are simple and just get glued to the leading edges. Early issues were with the alternator, but the install with the belted alternator up front should now be as reliable as any similar alternator arrangement. The controller? It is not complicated electronics -- its just that no one seems to have a financial incentive to light a fire under someone to identify and assemble new controllers on an ongoing basis so that controllers area available on an ongoing basis. Why is this not happening? The experimental market is thin; the Columbia/Cessna 300-400 are no longer made and thus is thin; and certification costs 85 bazillion $$#%^@#$$$! If it were certified for Cirrus, which was being attempted at one point according to the press, this thing would be widely available. But there must have been a cost/demand calculus made given that TKS was already Cirrus certified.

All of this is incredibly frustrating to me because there have been way too many occasions where I could have gone legally (circumnavigating the ice was **possible** according to the forecast) but did not go because the margins were too close for my risk tolerance.

I just cannot accept that we can't fix this. This system just is not that complicated, not so complicated that folks should be fumbling all over in ways that prevent us from collectively solving this problem. (Please fire away if you think that's naive. Maybe it is. Let's discuss.)

What I am looking for in this thread is an expression of interest in putting our resources together to solve this problem. There exists a system that was certified; it works; it does not rely on "sophisticated" components; and thus it SHOULD be used by those of us who would benefit from it. How many are interested? The only thing that needs to differ from the certified system for other Lancairs is heaters for the wings, and I know those heaters exist for the IV, the ES, and maybe for others? That isn't the barrier, as those parts do not appear to be that complicated to make. If we had enough interest, we should be able to get Kelly to make them. And what about Vans airforce? Why isn't that happening? Why While most of them are not CC machines like Lancairs, the RV 10s are. Isn't there a market for de-ice for those?

Sorry for the length, but given that ice has come up every time (well 80% of the time) I've tried to fly since mid December, and I'm honestly wondering whether I should sell my ES and buy back my Mooney, I feel like we should put our heads together and try to solve this problem, because these planes have many huge advantages over the Mooney!

Happy and safe flying,
Dan

Dan,

RDD Enterprises did have a non-certified version of Thermawing. It was called Therm-X. I believe they have discontinued selling the systems for the same reasons you mention above.

Reliability of Therm-X wasn’t great. I personally had failures in nearly every phase of flight on multiple aircraft using several generations of the system. The system is more complex and sophisticated than meets the eye, as there as sensors at each heating element along with controllers, etc.

The other big topic you mentioned is the lack of flight into known icing legality of experimentals. Having flown transport category airplanes with really good FIKI-certified deicing systems, I personally would have a hard time trusting a loosely-tested deice system like Therm-X. I’ve seen icing forecasts be wildly inaccurate at times, both better and worse than expected, and I wouldn’t personally bet my life on a system in its infancy on saving me from those conditions.

This probably isn’t the opinion you want to hear, but it’s one that came from years of flying in bad weather.

Thanks very much JC. My understanding is that the ThermaWing system on the Columbia works as advertised. I don't know about Therm-X and what was different. I am not looking for FIKI. I am looking for a system that gives me time to get out when conditions are different than what was forecast. Because I am very conservative, i didn't go several times this year where holes were forecasted that would have allowed it if the forecast had been correct. I didn't go because I didn't trust the forecast enough. What I am looking for is assurance that, with conservative planning (i.e., with a clear way out and a short period of protection in the event of inadvertent icing), one can go when the forecast says you should be able to go, but its a bit iffy. I went given the forecast you see in the original pics I posted, flying at 5500 ft. abit below the forecast ice, just high enough for the MEAs on the route. I was on the bubble, but I went knowing I had an easy out at multiple points below along the planned route. What I want is a system that makes me more comfortable that I have a period of protection while pursuing the planned "out" if the unexpected happens. I am still holding out hope that ThermaWing is that system. It was certified for the Columbia; there was an AD that was addressed; it works as advertised according to the FAA and several pilots. Heaters are available for the ES and others in the Lancair line-up. Why isn't it very available? Right now its a supply chain issue regarding components for the controller.

If you have information to the contrary -- that the ThermaWing system doesn't work -- I'm listening.

To my knowledge, Thermawing and Therm-X are very much the same system. As I mentioned reliability has been pretty poor in my experience. Many owners who had the system installed on their Lancairs removed it because they didn’t trust it to work when they needed it.

RDD’s website for the Therm-X system is a dead link now. I believe they were the only remaining installer for Thermawing and Therm-X. It appears they aren’t selling it any longer, and they have largely been unwilling to service any existing systems in recent years.
https://www.rddent.com/therm-xtrade.html

Brad Simmons has been installing ThermaWing. It works. One needs an alternator, probably up front in my case with a belt, and that's another point of failure, but there is a reliable alternator. ThermaWing was certified on the Columbia. Then they stopped making them, so the demand for the system from the certified world stopped. There was an AD; it was addressed.

Therm-x has proprietary parts. RDD would have to speak to the differences.

Installing a non-FIKI therma wing doesn't get you a better dispatch rate. This is because if icing is forecast, you are not legally allowed to file, nor should you. Now, if you're willing to spend the AMUs to install a non-FIKI system, it may give you some piece of mind if you encounter non-forecasted icing conditions. But that comes down to how well you trust the system.

I sold my Mooney Bravo with FIKI TKS to buy my ES a few years ago. I used the Mooney to do a weekly commute from San Antonio, TX to Montgomery, AL. The Mooney's system was redundant. It had two alternators, two pumps, and a hi/low flow capability. Even with that system, I did not file into known icing, or through it. I filed around it, below it, or over an area that I didn't plan on descending through. That gave me a few extra winter sorties that I may not have gotten without that system. That being said, I encountered light and moderate rime icing twice that was unforecast. Once at FL190 and once descending to land. The system worked, but I was not comfortable doing so. Single engine + poor weather + icing = my risk tolerance exceeded. But that's just me. I had no issues giving up the FIKI to get into my ES. The tradeoff was worth it since I know my risk tolerance.

Bottom line, if you really need the winter/spring dispatch rate and you're set on flying vs taking the airline, you need a FIKI bird, or possibly a FIKI twin. Our Lancair numbers are so low, I don't realistically see a FIKI path to FAA certification.

There have been a lot of days I could have gone legally (forecast holes up, down, around) where I didn’t go because the margins were too close for my tolerance. All I am seeking is going in those cases with a stringer escape hatch if forecast conditions prove wrong.


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Dan O'Brien wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 3:47 am There have been a lot of days I could have gone legally (forecast holes up, down, around) where I didn’t go because the margins were too close for my tolerance. All I am seeking is going in those cases with a stringer escape hatch if forecast conditions prove wrong.

Dan, it sounds like you have the right expectations. I think an FAA cert is not possible with the Lancair fleet number size and the owners who'd be willing to shell out the $$. I know Brad sometimes removes the Therma systems when he does upgrades for clients. He may be a great resource to call and see if you could piece together a working system.

Hiya Dan,

Came across these folks at OSH this week: https://www.buenostechnologies.com/

It's an electro-thermal system for the wing and horizontal stabilizer. $17K without installation. 150 hours to install.

Cheers,

Bryan

bryannairn wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 4:27 pm Came across these folks at OSH this week: https://www.buenostechnologies.com/

It's an electro-thermal system for the wing and horizontal stabilizer. $17K without installation. 150 hours to install.

Did they mention for which aircraft they are making systems? Is this different than the Kelly Aerospace system RDD sold previously? I see the booth is listed as RDD.